Are FCS vs. Power Four upsets extinct? Six potential shockers in 2026 that could end the drought
The college football landscape is evolving, and the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening. The FCS upset over a Power Four opponent, once a regular occurrence, now seems like a distant memory. Since 2023, Power conference teams have dominated FCS competition, winning 125 straight games. The last FCS upset occurred in Week 4 of the 2023 season when Sacramento State stunned Stanford 30-23. But is this trend here to stay?
The transfer portal and NIL have significantly impacted the talent drain from FCS to FBS programs. It's becoming increasingly difficult for FCS teams to retain their best players, who often leave for the FBS level. Since the NIL era began in 2022, FBS power conference teams have achieved an impressive 223-2 (.991) win-loss record against FCS opponents. This stark contrast to the previous 16 seasons, when power conference teams were 747-38 (.952) against FCS, highlights the shift in dominance.
Even Group of Six teams, traditionally more competitive, are struggling. They've gone 238-20 (.922) against FCS competition in the past four seasons, a decline from the previous 16 years. The talent drain is evident, with proven FCS programs like North Dakota State and Jacksonville State making the jump to FBS.
Breaking the streak will require a perfect alignment and a bit of luck for the FCS. With over 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups in 2026, the focus is on the 57 games pitting FCS against Power Four opponents, especially those featuring preseason top-25 FCS teams. Will any of these games provide the upset moment we've been waiting for?
Here are six potential shockers in 2026 that could end the drought:
No. 3 South Dakota State at Northwestern: South Dakota State, led by quarterback Chase Mason, seeks to avenge past losses to Power Four opponents. Northwestern, under coach David Braun, who knows the caliber of opponent, must be wary of the Jackrabbits' recent success and talent.
No. 9 Youngstown State at Kentucky: Kentucky, with a top-10 transfer portal class, faces a challenging start under Will Stein. Youngstown State, led by Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, brings a potent offense that could give Kentucky a run for its money.
No. 10 North Dakota at Nebraska: Nebraska, under Matt Rhule, hasn't lost to an FCS opponent. However, North Dakota, with dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker, nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State in 2025. This game could be a close affair.
No. 14 Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State: Mississippi State, with a tough schedule, could face a challenging season. Tennessee Tech, led by coach Bobby Wilder, has reloaded with a strong transfer class, making this a potential upset spot.
No. 17 Austin Peay at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt, following a breakthrough season, must prove its sustainability without quarterback Diego Pavia. Austin Peay, with quarterback Chris Parson, a Walter Payton Award finalist, has the talent to cause an upset.
No. 22 Monmouth at West Virginia: West Virginia, under Rich Rodriguez, has a new roster with over 70 new players. Monmouth, a Group of Six specialist, could cause an upset, but the Mountaineers' perfect record against FCS teams is a significant hurdle.
The 2026 season promises exciting matchups, and while the odds may be stacked against the FCS, these potential shockers could provide the momentous upset that college football fans have been eagerly awaiting.
